西江流域中游水文情势变化及预测研究
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P338

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Hydrological changes and sensitivity in the middle reaches of the Xijiang River Basin based on support vector machine
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    摘要:

    研究西江中游水文情势的变化规律可为西江流域经济社会的高质量发展、水资源的合理利用和水利工程建设等提供水文数据支撑。分别运用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法、Mann-Whitney-Pettitt突变点检验法和Morlet小波分析法对其进行趋势、突变和周期分析;基于BP神经网络进行年平均水位和年径流量的预测研究。结果表明:年平均气温呈明显的增加趋势,年平均水位呈明显的减少趋势,其余水文要素变化趋势不明显;年平均水位在2002年、年平均气温在2014年发生了显著突变,其余水文要素没有发生显著突变;西江中游年平均水位BP神经网络模型和年径流量BP神经网络模型应用效果较好。

    Abstract:

    Studying the changes in hydrological conditions in the middle reaches of the Xijiang River can provide hydrological data support for high-quality development of the economy and society,rational utilization of water resources,and construction of water conservancy projects in the Xijiang River Basin.The Mann-Kendall trend analysis method,Mann-Whitney-Pettitt change-point detection method,and Morlet wavelet analysis method were employed to conduct the analysis of trend,change-point,and periodicity,respectively;Meanwhile,the predictions of annual average water level and annual runoff were made based on BP neural network.The results showed that the annual average temperature displayed a significant increasing trend,the annual average water level showed a significant decreasing trend,and the changes in other hydrological factors were not obvious;both the annual average water level in 2002 and the annual average temperature in 2014 experienced significant changes,while other hydrological factors did not show significant changes;the BP neural network models for annual average water level and annual runoff in the middle reaches of the Xijiang River showed good application effects.

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朱颖洁,张立杰.西江流域中游水文情势变化及预测研究[J].江西水利科技,2025,(4):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-11
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