1970—2019 年江西省极端降水时空演变规律分析
DOI:
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

TV122+1

基金项目:


Analysis of spatiotemporal evolution patterns of extreme precipitation in Jiangxi Province from 1970 to 2019
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    随着全球气候变化,包括极端降水在内的各类极端气象水文事件在世界各地呈现频发状态,不仅对自然生态系统构成威胁,也对人类社会和经济发展带来巨大挑战。江西省因其多山多丘的地形特征,极易受极端降水事件的影响,研究基于1970—2019 年日降水数据,采用趋势、突变、周期以及空间模态分析相结合的方法,对江西省极端降水的时程演变、空间分布以及空间演变特征进行定量识别与分析。结果表明:1970—2019 年江西省多年面均降雨呈不显著上升趋势,2008 年后更容易出现较高的峰值;各站点降水强度指数多呈上升趋势,暴雨日数显著上升,发生2 天以上暴雨的年份在近25 年出现5 次,占总数的83%,极端降水呈频发重发的演变特征;82%的站点暴雨日数呈上升趋势,且75%以上的站点强降雨日数与极强降雨日数呈上升趋势,研究区降水在时间上更为集聚;研究区北部区域极端降水强度的变化更为剧烈,高强度极端降雨发生位置向北转移。因此,江西省未来的水安全保障工作需考虑北部区域极端降水变化加快加深的问题。

    Abstract:

    To analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of extreme precipitation in Jiangxi Province,based on the daily precipitation data from 1970 to 2019,a combination of trend,mutation,cycle,and spatial modal analysis was used to quantitatively identify and analyze the temporal evolution,spatial distribution,and spatial evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation in Jiangxi Province.The results show that there is no significant upward trend of multi -year average surface precipitation in Jiangxi Province from 1970 to 2019,and a higher peak is more likely to occur after 2008;the precipitation intensity index of each station mostly shows an increasing trend,the number of days of heavy rainfall rises significantly,and the years in which more than 2 days of heavy rainfall occurred appear 5 times in the last 25 years,accounting for 83% of the total,and the extreme precipitation is characterized by the evolution of frequent and heavy rainfall;82% of the station.The number of days of heavy rainfall showed an upward trend,and more than 75% of the stations of heavy rainfall days and the number of days of very heavy rainfall showed an upward trend,the study area precipitation is more clustered in time;the northern part of the study area is more drastic changes in the intensity of extreme precipitation,and the location of high-intensity extreme precipitation is shifted to the north.Therefore,in the future,we should focus on the water security in the northern part of Jiangxi Province and consider the risk of accelerating and deepening the changes in extreme precipitation in the north.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

洪美玲,夏 辰,王讷敏,陈玮瑶,顾爱辉.1970—2019 年江西省极端降水时空演变规律分析[J].江西水利科技,2025,(1):

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-03-28
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码