考虑高程的江西省年均降水量插值方法比较
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P413

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Comparison of interpolation methods for annual average precipitation of considering elevation in Jiangxi Province
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    摘要:

    准确获取降水量年际变化特征与空间分布对农业生产管理、生态保护和气象预警等至关重要。基于2000—2018年江西省91 个气象站点的年降水数据,采用考虑高程的多元线性回归插值法(MLR)、反距离权重法(IDW)、协同克里金法(CK)和ANUSPLIN 法进行空间插值并交叉检验,比较4 种方法的插值精度。研究发现:(1)江西省的年均降水量表现出明显的经度地带性,与高程呈正相关。纬度与降水量无显著相关性。(2)IDW 法和CK 法的平均相对误差(MRE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)及均方根误差(RMSE)显著高于ANUSPLIN 法和MLR 法,MAE 和RMSE 分别高40 mm 和80 mm 左右。(3)插值精度排序为:ANUSPLIN 法>MLR 法>CK 法>IDW 法;其中ANUSPLIN 法的MRE 为0.03%,MAE 为54.04 mm,RMSE 为68.86 mm,插值结果最准确。研究建议江西省降水插值研究优先采用ANUSPLIN 法。

    Abstract:

    Accurately obtaining the interannual variation characteristics and spatial distribution of precipitation is crucial for agricultural production management,ecological protection and meteorological warning.Based on the annual precipitation data from 91 meteorological stations in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2018,spatial interpolation and crosschecking were carried out using multiple linear regression interpolation (MLR)considering elevation,inverse distance weighting (IDW) considering elevation,cooperative kriging (CK) considering elevation,and ANUSPLIN introducing elevation covariate to compare the four methods and cross-checked to compare the interpolation accuracy of the four methods.It is found that:(1) the mean annual precipitation in Jiangxi Province shows obvious longitudinal zonality,which is positively correlated with elevation.There is no significant correlation between latitude and precipitation.(2)The mean relative error(MRE),mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE)of IDW and CK are significantly higher than those of ANUSPLIN and MLR,and the MAE and RMSE are about 40 mm and 80 mm more,respectively.(3) The interpolation accuracy is ordered as follows:ANUSPLIN >MLR >CK>IDW;where the MRE of ANUSPLIN is 0.03%,MAE is 54.04 mm,and RMSE is 68.86 mm,which is the most accurate interpolation result.The study suggests that the ANUSPLIN method should be adopted as a priority for the study of precipitation interpolation in Jiangxi Province.

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江传吉,李 志.考虑高程的江西省年均降水量插值方法比较[J].江西水利科技,2024,(6):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-02-08
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