近67 年大通河流域径流量时序变化特征及演变趋势研究
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Temporal variation characteristics and evolutionary trends of runoff in the Datong river basin over the past 67 years
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    摘要:

    为有效掌握大通河流域径流量的变化特征及演变趋势,精准服务水资源管理,本文采用流域控制站的实测径流资料,采用不均匀系数分析法、完全调节系数法、一元线性回归法、5 年滑动平均法、Maan-Kendall 非参数检验法对大通河流域径流量从年内分配、年际变化、变异年份及演变趋势多角度进行研究,结果表明:大通河径流量年内分配极不均匀,极值比相差较大,径流主要集中在7、8、9 月份,随着年份的延长,年内分配越来越均匀,集中程度越来越弱;年际变化较稳定,出现显著性减小趋势;近67 年来,径流量共减少了4.08 亿m3,减小率为0.061 亿m3/a,跨流域调水是造成径流量减少的主要原因;径流量在1961 年、2003 年、2010 年出现变异。研究可为流域水资源合理配置、河湖管理、工农业生产用水提供参考依据。

    Abstract:

    In order to effectively grasp the change characteristics and evolutionary trends of runoff in the Datong river basin and provide accurate services for water resource management, this article used the measured runoff data from watershed control stations, and adopts the non-uniform coefficient analysis method, complete adjustment coefficient method, univariate linear regression method, 5-year moving average method, and Maan Kendall non parametric test method to analyze the annual distribution characteristics of runoff. The study was conducted from multiple perspectives of annual distribution, interannual variation, variation years, and evolution trends of watershed runoff. The results showed that the annual distribution of runoff was extremely uneven, with significant differences in extreme values.Runoff was mainly concentrated in July, August, and September. With the extension of the year, the annual distribution becomed more uniform and the degree of concentration becomed weaker. The interannual variation was relatively stable,showing a significant decreasing trend. In the past 67 years, the runoff decreased by 408 million m?, with a decrease rate of 0.068 million m?/a. Water transfer crossing basins was the main reason for the decrease in runoff. The runoff varied in 1961, 2003, and 2010. The study can provide reference basis for rational allocation of water resources in river basins, river and lake management, and water use for industrial and agricultural production.

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陈丽丽.近67 年大通河流域径流量时序变化特征及演变趋势研究[J].江西水利科技,2024,(5):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-11-27
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