HEC-HMS 模型在江西省山区中小河流洪水预报中的适用性研究
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Applicability of HEC-HMS model in flood forecasting of small-middle rivers in mountainous areas of Jiangxi province
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    摘要:

    山区洪水暴涨陡落,常造成严重经济损失和人员伤亡,实现中小河流洪水预报在防洪减灾中十分重要。为探究HEC-HMS 分布式水文模型在江西省山区中小河流的适用性,以蜀水流域为研究区,构建了基于HEC-HMS 的蜀水流域分布式水文模型,选用2013-2019 年间的12 场降雨对模型进行参数率定、敏感性分析和洪水过程模拟。结果表明:模型参数中CN 值为最敏感参数;模型预测值与实测值结果显示洪峰流量和峰现时间合格率均为91.67%,径流深合格率为100%,确定性系数均高于0.7;HEC-HMS 模型在蜀水流域中有较好的模拟效果,可为江西省山区中小河流域洪水预报提供参考。

    Abstract:

    The sudden rise and fall of floods in mountainous areas often cause serious economic losses and casualties.Realizing flood forecasting for small-middle rivers is crucial in flood control and disaster reduction.To explore the applicability of the HEC-HMS distributed hydrological model in small-middle rivers in mountainous areas of Jiangxi province, a distributed hydrological model based on HEC-HMS was constructed in the Shushui river basin as the research area.The model was selected for parameter calibration, sensitivity analysis, and flood process simulation using 12 rainfall events from 2013 to 2019.The results indicate that the CN value is the most sensitive parameter among the model parameters.The predicted and measured values of the model show that the qualified rates of peak flow and peak time are both 91.67%, the qualified rate of runoff depth is 100%, and the certainty coefficient is higher than 0.7.It shows that the HEC-HMS model has good simulation results in the Shushui river basin, which can provide reference for flood forecasting in small and medium-sized river basins in mountainous areas of Jiangxi province.

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游 云,许小华,朱龙辉,王小笑,刘业伟,付佳伟. HEC-HMS 模型在江西省山区中小河流洪水预报中的适用性研究[J].江西水利科技,2024,(2):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-06-04
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