基于MODIS的滇池蓝藻水华时间序列变化趋势及气象影响因素分析
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MODIS-based analysis of trends and major influencing factors under time series of cyanobacterial blooms in Dianchi lake
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    摘要:

    在全球气候变化大环境下,为探究滇池近十年来的蓝藻水华趋势及其主要影响因素,本文利用2010-2019年的MODIS 遥感数据以及气象环境监测数据,计算出滇池FAI 阈值为0.011 22 并对水华进行鉴定,进一步分析其在时间序列下的变化规律。结果表明:滇池在2010-2019 常年有蓝藻水华现象,且在秋冬季表现较为显著,甚至出现水华面积占比接近40%的大面积暴发现象,可见该时段的蓝藻水华治理需要得到更多的关注。在影响滇池的气象因素中,风速、日照时长和水温与水华暴发有明显相关性。其中:风速与水华暴发程度整体上呈现较明显的负相关关系,且多数蓝藻水华大规模暴发事件与区间内风速变化的极值有对应关系;日照时长也与蓝藻水华暴发整体上呈现较明显的负相关关系;水温在秋季与蓝藻水华暴发整体上具有较明显的单峰关系,其他季节则与水温的突变有关。

    Abstract:

    Under the environment of global climate change,in order to explore the trend of cyanobacterial bloom in Dianchi in the past ten years and its main influencing factors,this paper uses MODIS remote sensing data and meteorological and environmental monitoring data from 2010-2019,calculates the FAI threshold of Dianchi to be 0.01122 and identifies the bloom,and further analyzes the changes of cyanobacterial bloom in Dianchi under the time series.The results show that Dianchi has cyanobacterial bloom phenomenon in 2010-2019 perennially,and the cyanobacterial bloom phenomenon is more significant in the fall and winter,and even a large-scale outbreak phenomenon with a bloom area share of close to 40% occurs,which can be seen that cyanobacterial bloom in this time period needs more attention and management.Among the meteorological factors affecting Dianchi lake,wind speed,sunshine duration and water temperature have obvious correlation with the bloom.Among them,wind speed and the degree of bloom overall showed obvious negative correlation,and most of the cyanobacterial bloom large-scale outbreaks corresponded to the extreme value of the wind speed in the interval;the sunshine duration also showed obvious negative correlation with the cyanobacterial bloom overall;the water temperature in the fall and the cyanobacterial bloom also had obvious singlepeak relationship with the bloom as a whole,while the other seasons were associated with the sudden change of the water temperature.

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谢兆起.基于MODIS的滇池蓝藻水华时间序列变化趋势及气象影响因素分析[J].江西水利科技,2023,(6):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-01-03
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