基于材料市场价格变化的小流域综合治理水土保持投资敏感性分析
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S157.2

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Sensitivity analysis of water and soil conservation investment in comprehensive management of small watershed based on the change of material market price
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    摘要:

    为分析材料市场价格变化对小流域治理水土保持投资的影响,以南坑小流域治理为例,通过选择材料市场价格增幅为1%、2%、5%、7.5%、10%、20%、50%、75%、100%等9 种情况,计算分析材料预算价格、水土保持措施单价、水土保持投资等变化情况。结果表明:材料预算价格、水土保持措施单价、水土保持投资与材料市场价格密切相关,均随着材料市场价格增加而增加,其中材料预算价格的敏感性最大,其增幅约为材料市场价格增幅的0.8 倍以上;水土保持投资的敏感性次之,其增幅约为材料市场价格增幅的0.5 倍左右;措施单价的敏感性与单价中的材料费占比有关,材料费占比大的敏感性高,材料费占比小的敏感性低,其增幅约为材料市场价格增幅的0.1~0.8 倍之间,总体表明材料市场价格变化对水土保持投资影响比较显著。

    Abstract:

    In order to analyze the influence of the change of material market price on the investment of soil and water conservation in the small watershed management,through the selection of material market price increases of 1%,2%,5%,7.5%,10%,20%,50%,75%,100%,the changes of material budget price,unit price of soil and water conservation measures and investment of soil and water conservation were calculated and analyzed.The results showed that the budget price of materials,the unit price of soil and water conservation measures and the investment of soil and water conservation were closely related to the market price of materials,the budget price of materials was the most sensitive,the increase rate was over 0.8 times of the market price of materials.The second was the sensitivity of soil and water conservation investment,the increase rate was about 0.5 times of the market price of materials.The sensitivity of the unit price was related to the proportion of material cost in the unit price.The sensitivity of the large proportion of material cost was high,and the sensitivity of the small proportion of material cost was low.The increase rate was about 0.1~0.8 times of the increase rate of material market price.The results showed that the change of material market price has significant effect on soil and water conservation investment.

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吴治玲.基于材料市场价格变化的小流域综合治理水土保持投资敏感性分析[J].江西水利科技,2023,(6):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-01-03
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