变化环境下鄱阳湖洪水指标演变特征研究
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TV122

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Study on evolution characteristics of flood index in Poyang Lake under changing environment
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    摘要:

    本文基于鄱阳湖洪水特点,选取特定洪水特征指标,利用数理统计方法分析鄱阳湖洪水特征指标的趋势性、突变性和周期性,并分析演变特征和驱动因素,得到结论如下:1)未来高洪可能性仍然较大,未来6~10a 鄱阳湖年最高水位仍处于丰水期;2)洪水在年内分配发生较大改变,变化过程从“矮胖型”向相对“尖瘦型”演变,水量在年内更加集中化;3)高洪持续天数显著增加,19.00m 以上的高水位维持时间平均每10a 延长2.2d;4)年最高水位及年平均水位周期性变化主要受“五河”入湖周期性变化所控制,同时会受到其他因素影响而改变原有周期性变化规律,年最高水位具有5a 为第一主周期,40~49a 为第二主周期的变化规律。

    Abstract:

    Based on the flood characteristics of Poyang Lake, this paper selects specific flood characteristic indexes,uses mathematical statistical methods to analyze the trend, mutation and periodicity of Poyang Lake's flood characteristic indexes, as well as the evolution characteristics and driving factors. The conclusions are as follows: 1) the possibility of high flood in the future is still large, and the annual maximum water level of Poyang Lake in the next 6~10 years is still in the wet season; 2) the flood distribution has changed greatly during the year, and the change process has evolved from "low level with long period" to relatively "high level with short period", and the water volume is more concentrated during the year; 3) there is an obvious increasing trend in the duration of high flood level, whose duration extends by 2.2 days in average each decade; 4) the periodic changes of annual maximum water level and annual average water level are mainly controlled by the periodic changes of "Five Rivers" entering the lake. At the same time, the original periodic change law will be changed by other factors. The annual maximum water level mainly changes every 5 years, followed by 40~49a as the second main cycle.

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欧阳千林,熊忠文,司武卫,刘 鹏.变化环境下鄱阳湖洪水指标演变特征研究[J].江西水利科技,2023,(3):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-07-14
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