总量红线约束下江西省“以水定产”方案初探
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Preliminary study on the scheme of“industrial production determined by water”in Jiangxi province constrained by the red line of total water consumption
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    摘要:

    梳理江西省工业发展及用水现状,测算了规划年各设区市工业用水需求,根据“四水四定”原则提出总量控制红线约束下不同节水水平江西省规划水平年工业发展规模初步方案。高、中、低用水效率方案下江西省2025 年和2030 年工业需水量分别为59.2~61.8 亿m3 和64.8~70.1 亿m3,缺水量分别达到4.81~7.43 亿m3 和4.08~9.42 亿m3;红线约束下2025 年和2030 年工业增加值分别为11 839.5~12 363.3 亿元和15 586.7~16 873.5 亿元,与常规预测值相比分别减少了1 092~1 615.7 亿元和1 132.7~2 419.5 亿元。用水总量控制红线一定程度上制约了江西省工业经济的快速发展,为此提出了水资源刚性约束下未来江西省工业发展相关措施和建议。

    Abstract:

    By analyzing the current situation of industrial development and water use in Jiangxi province,and calculating the industrial water demand of each district and city in the planning year,this paper puts forward a preliminary scheme for the industrial development scale of Jiangxi province in the planning level year constrained by the red line of the total water consumption and different water conservation levels according to the principle of "four water-based principles". Under the high,medium and low water efficiency schemes,the industrial water demand of Jiangxi province in 2025 and 2030 will be 5.92~6.18 billion m3 and 6.48~7.01 billion m3 respectively,and the water shortage will reach 481~743 million m3 and 408~942 million m3 respectively; Under the constraint of the red line,the industrial added value in 2025 and 2030 will be 1 183.95~1 236.33 billion CNY and 1 558.67~1 687.35 billion CNY respectively,which will decrease by 109.2~161.57 billion CNY and 113.27~241.95 billion CNY respectively compared with the conventional forecast value. The red line of total water consumption has restricted the rapid development of Jiangxi's industrial economy to a certain extent,therefore,the paper puts forward relevant measures and suggestions for the future industrial development of Jiangxi province under the rigid constraint of water resources.

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胡久伟,温天福,李艳红,赵楠芳,成静清.总量红线约束下江西省“以水定产”方案初探[J].江西水利科技,2023,(3):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-07-14
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