By summarizing the current situation and problems of agricultural development and water consumption in Jiangxi province and predicting the agricultural water demand of prefecture-level cities in the planning year, the paper puts forward the preliminary plan of agricultural development scale in Jiangxi province in the planning year constrained by the red line of total water consumption according to ＂four water-based principles＂. That is, in 2025 and 2030, the agricultural water demand will be 16.69～17.28 billion m3 and 15.93～16.72 billion m3 respectively, the scale of the effective irrigation area of farmland will be 2.191 5～2.272 0 million hm2 and 2.266 6～2.381 7 million hm2 respectively,the area of forestry, husbandry and fishing will be 0.173 1 million hm2 and 0.174 9 million hm2 respectively, the scale of livestock breeding will be 19.963 8 million and 20.163 2 million respectively. Constrained by the red line of total water consumption, the maximum water shortage of agricultural water in 2025 and 2030 in Jiangxi province will be 270 million m3 and 497 million m3 respectively. The effective irrigated area of farmland determined by water cannot meet the requirements of social and economic development. The red line of total water consumption restricts the rapid development of agricultural economy in Jiangxi province. Therefore, some measures and suggestions for future agricultural development under the constraint of water resources are put forward.