吉安市用水结构演变驱动因子分析及用水预测
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TV213

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Driving factors of water structure evolution and water use prediction in Ji'an city
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    摘要:

    基于2003~2017年吉安市农业、工业、生活、生态及总用水量数据,采用信息熵与均衡度的方法分析了用水结构的演变过程,运用主成分分析判别出主要的驱动力因子,并建立GM(1,1)模型,预测未来年份的用水量.结果表明:吉安市的用水以农业用水量为主,而生态用水所占比重较小;各部门用水量及总用水量均呈现出上升趋势,但其农业用水比重却呈下降趋势;信息熵和均衡度变化过程为先下降后上升,整体上呈增加趋势,表明区域用水结构正在向理想(平衡)状态演变和发展;影响吉安市用水结构的主要驱动因子有人口、社会经济发展、工农业产出及气候特征等;农业用水量及总用水量在未来呈现减少的趋势,工业用水量、生活用水量及生态用水量呈现增加的趋势.

    Abstract:

    In this study, information entropy and equilibrium degree methods were used to evaluate the water consumption structure evolution from 2003 to 2017 of Ji'an city.The main driving factors were identified by using principal component analysis,and GM(1,1)model was established to predict the water consumption in future years.The results revealed that the main water consumption in Ji'an city was agricultural water consumption,and the proportion of ecological water consumption was less important.The total water consumption showed an increasing trend,among which the proportion of agricultural water consumption showed a decreasing trend.The results of information entropy and equilibrium degree was first declined and then increased,showing an increasing trend on the whole and indicating that the regional water use structure was developed towards an ideal(equilibrium)state.The main driving factors affecting the water structure of Ji'an city include population,social and economic development,industrial and agricultural output and climate characteristics.Agricultural water consumption and total water consumption will decrease in the future,while industrial water consumption,domestic water consumption and ecological water consumption will increase.

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刘裕辉,王雪茹,王志雄,付小虎,计 勇.吉安市用水结构演变驱动因子分析及用水预测[J].江西水利科技,2019,(5):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-11-20
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