赣江栋背水文站历史洪水误差对设计洪水的影响研究
DOI:
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

TV122

基金项目:


The impact of historical flood error on design flood in Dongbei hydrological station of Ganjiang river
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    历史洪水一般都来自于调查考证,存在着一定的误差,如何评估历史洪水误差对设计洪水计算成果的影响具有重要意义.现有研究通常只考虑了量级或重现期的单独影响,而对量级和重现期误差的联合影响研究较少.本文基于P-Ⅲ型分布和线性矩法(LM)构建P-Ⅲ/LM洪水频率计算模型,在实测资料基础上加入不同量级、不同重现期和量级与重现期联合扰动的历史洪水,研究历史洪水误差对设计洪水的影响.赣江栋背水文站的应用结果表明:历史洪水量级误差对设计洪水的影响比重现期误差更加显著.量级与重现期两者存在交互关系,当量级与重现期联合扰动时不仅有正向的增强效果,还有负向抵消减弱的情况,在量级与重现期联合扰动-20%~20%情况下,2000年一遇、1000年一遇和100年一遇洪水设计值最大偏差比例分别为9.12%、8.53%、6.20%和-5.86%、-5.50%、-4.02%.重现期误差偏大或偏小20%,可大致抵消量级误差偏大或者偏小10%的影响.

    Abstract:

    Historical flood usually comes from investigation and textual research,with errors.How to evaluate the influence of historical flood error on design flood calculation results is of great significance.Existing studies usually only consider the single effect of magnitude or recurrence period,but the combined effect of magnitude and recurrence period error is rarely studied.In this paper,P-III/LM flood frequency calculation model is built based on P-III distribution and L-moment method(LM).Historical floods of different orders of magnitude,different recurrence periods and combined disturbance of magnitude and recurrence period are added on the basis of measured data to study the influence of historical flood error on design flood.The application results of Ganjiang Dongbei hydrological station show that the influence of historical flood magnitude error on design flood is more significant than that of current period error.Magnitude and recurrence interval there is interaction relationship,when disturbance level and return period that not only has positive effect,and negative offset weakening,in magnitude and recurrence interval joint disturbance-20%~20%of cases,once,once in 1000 and 2000 in 100,a flood design value maximum deviation ratio were 9.12%,8.53%,6.20%and 5.86%,5.50%,4.02%.Large or small error of 20%in the recurrence period can roughly offset the impact of large or small error of 10%.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

许世超,许新发,刘章君.赣江栋背水文站历史洪水误差对设计洪水的影响研究[J].江西水利科技,2019,(4):

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2019-09-25
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码