| 袁鹏飞,郭红虎,韩会明,吴宇飞.赣江流域洪水峰量演变规律及联合分布研究[J].江西水利科技,2022,(4): |
| 赣江流域洪水峰量演变规律及联合分布研究 |
| Analysis of evolution law and joint distribution of flood peak and volume in Ganjiang River Basin |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: Copula 函数 洪峰洪量 赣江流域 |
| 英文关键词: Copula function Flood peak and flood volume Ganjiang River Basin |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为研究赣江流域洪水特征，基于赣江流域外洲水文站1950-2019 年共70 年逐日流量资料，对年最大洪峰流量和1 日洪量进行研究，通过Copula 函数研究其洪水峰量联合分布情况。结果表明：赣江洪峰和洪量保持良好的一致性，均呈减少趋势；洪峰和洪量的最优分布均为gamma 分布函数；Frank copula 函数可以很好的拟合赣江洪峰和洪量的相关关系；洪水单变量重现期为5 年一遇时，实际重现期为4.89～5.12 年；当单变量重现期为100 年一遇时，实际重现期为72.51～161.05年。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to study the flood characteristics of Ganjiang River Basin, based on the daily flow data of the Ganjiang River Basin Control Hydrological Station for 70 years from 1950 to 2019, the annual maximum peak discharge and the maximum daily flood volume were studied, and the joint distribution of flood peak and volume was studied through the copula function, and the joint return period was analyzed. The results showed that the Ganjiang River flood peak and volume maintained good consistency, and both showed a decreasing trend; The optimal distribution of flood peak and flood volume were both gamma distribution functions; The Frank copula function can fit the correlation between the flood peak and flood volume of the Ganjiang River well. When the univariate return period of flood is 5 years, the actual return period is 4.89～5.12 years; when the univariate return period is 100 years, the actual return period is 72.51～161.05 years. |
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