| 甘志君,刘章君,许新发,张 珂.鄱阳湖洪水要素演变特征分析[J].江西水利科技,2022,(2): |
| 鄱阳湖洪水要素演变特征分析 |
| Analysis on the evolution characteristics of flood elements in Xingzi station of Poyang Lake |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 洪水要素 演变特征 趋势分析 突变分析 鄱阳湖 |
| 英文关键词: Flood elements Evolution characteristics Trend analysis Mutation analysis Poyang Lake |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 鄱阳湖洪涝灾害频繁发生，给人民生命财产安全和经济社会发展带来严重威胁和影响。因此，本文基于鄱阳湖星子水文站1951-2020年的水位数据资料，采用线性回归分析法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和Pettitt突变点检验法分析鄱阳湖湖区的洪水要素趋势和突变情况。研究表明：（1）年最高水位总体上呈现上升趋势，但统计上不显著（P＞0.05），局部变化趋势明显，其中2001-2020年具有显著上升趋势，年最高水位出现时间不存在显著变化趋势，超警戒水位持续时间存在显著上升趋势，近几年鄱阳湖洪水危险程度有上升态势。（2）年最高水位、年最高水位出现时间和超警戒水位持续时间都不存在显著性突变。（3）气候变化对于鄱阳湖洪水要素的影响占主导地位，人类活动的影响力相对较小。研究鄱阳湖洪水要素演变及其影响因素，对于鄱阳湖区域的防洪减灾有一定的参考价值。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The frequent occurrence of flood disasters in Poyang Lake has brought serious threat and impact to people's life,property safety,economic and social development.Therefore,based on the water level data of Xingzi hydrological station of Poyang Lake from 1951 to 2020,this paper uses the linear regression analysis method,Mann-Kendall trend test method and Pettitt mutation point test method to analyze the trend and mutation of flood elements in Poyang Lake.The results show that:（1）the annual maximum water level shows an upward trend on the whole,and no obvious trend is detected,but the local change trend is obvious.There is an obvious upward trend from 2001 to 2020,the time of annual maximum water level does not have an obvious change trend,the duration of over alert water level has an obvious upward trend,and the flood risk degree of Poyang Lake has an upward trend in recent years;（2）There is no significant mutation in the annual maximum water level,the occurrence time of annual maximum water level and the duration of exceeding warning water level;（3）The impact of climate change on flood factors of Poyang Lake is dominant,and the impact of human activities is relatively small.The study on the evolution of flood elements and its influencing factors in Poyang Lake has a certain reference value for flood control and disaster reduction in Poyang Lake region. |
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