基于误差原理的瞬时单位线法参数敏感性研究

计算暴雨洪水的瞬时单位线法在我国应用较广，瞬时单位线法的地理参数、产汇流参数和暴雨参数等原始参数往往存在一定的误差，会通过误差传播使地面径流过程产生相应的误差。采用多元函数一阶泰勒公式展开瞬时单位线法基本方程，可得到各参数一阶代数精度的误差传播方程。结果表明：暴雨的相对误差传播具有一定的放大效应；流域面积的相对误差会导致地面径流过程等量的相对误差；下渗量的相对误差传播敏感性总体相对较小，局部仍有可能较大；线型参数n、K的加大，会导致地面径流峰值减小，上涨段更平瘦、回落段更丰满，并存在不显著的峰值发生时间后移趋势。

英文摘要:

The instantaneous unit hydrograph method for calculating rainstorm flood is widely used in China.The original parameters of the instantaneous unit hydrograph method,such as geographical parameters,runoff yield and concentration parameters and rainstorm parameters,often have certain error,which will cause corresponding error in the surface runoff process through error propagation.By expanding the basic equation of the instantaneous unit hydrograph method with the first-order Taylor′s Formula of multivariate function,the error propagation equation with the first-order algebraic accuracy of each parameter can be obtained.The results show that the relative error propagation of rainstorm has a certain amplification effect;The relative error of watershed area will lead to the equivalent relative error of surface runoff process;The relative error propagation sensitivity of infiltration quantity is relatively small overall,and may still be large locally;With the increase of parameters N and K,the peak value of surface runoff will decrease,the rising section will be flatter and thinner,and the falling section will be plumper,and there is an insignificant trend in the occurrence of peak time moving backward.

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