| 邱卫华,严 蓓.江西省潜在蒸散量模型适用性研究[J].江西水利科技,2020,(3): |
| 江西省潜在蒸散量模型适用性研究 |
| Research on optimal estimation model of potential evapotranspiration in Jiangxi province based on temperature data and machine learning |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 参考作物蒸散量 江西省 极限学习机 Penman-Monteith模型 |
| 英文关键词: Reference crop evapotranspiration Jiangxi province Extreme Learning Machine Penman-Monteith model |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为找出适用于江西省的潜在蒸散量（ET0）简化计算模型，在仅有温度资料下得出精度最高的模型，本文以区域内南昌、南城、赣州、景德镇和吉安5个站点1961～2017年的逐日气象资料为基础，计算Penman-Monteith（PM）模型、极限学习机（ELM）模型、支持向量机（SVM）模型、随机森林（RF）模型、M5树（M5T）模型和 Hargreaves（HS）模型的逐日 ET0数据，结果表明：ELM模型ET0日值拟合方程斜率为0.973～1.151，与标准值“1”最接近，月值与PM模型标准值拟合效果最高，5个站点RMSE为0.331～0.457mm/d，而R2和Ens分别达到了0.945～0.969和0.944～0.969，误差最低而一致性最高，综合表明ELM模型精度最高，可作为江西省ET0计算的标准模型使用. |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to find a simplified calculation model for the reference crop evapotranspiration （ET0） in Jiangxi province，the model with the highest accuracy was obtained only with temperature data.This paper was based on daily weather data from 1961 to 2017 in 5 stations in Jiangxi province.We calculated daily ET0data with Penman-Monteith（PM）model，Extreme Learning Machine（ELM）model，Support Vector Machine（SVM）model，Random Forest Model（RF）model，M5 Tree（M5T）model，and Hargreaves（HS）model.The relative root mean square error（RMSE），the decision coefficient（R2）and the model efficiency coefficient（Ens）were used as the evaluation index system to compare the calculation accuracy of different models.The results showed that：the slope of the ELM model ET0daily value fitting equation is 0.973～1.151，which is closest to the standard value“1”.ELM model has the lowest error and highest consistency.The model can be used as the ET0standard calculation model in Jiangxi province. |
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