赣江流域蓝水绿水资源时空变化分析

在当今的水资源管理中，分析评估气候变化下流域内蓝水、绿水资源的时空变化情形，能为维持生态系统稳定、保障社会经济的发展提供依据.本文利用SWAT模型模拟了赣江流域1960～2013年的水文循环过程，基于趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验等方法，分析了流域内蓝水及绿水资源的时空变化情况.在空间上看，赣江流域内蓝水及绿水资源多呈上升趋势，只有流域西部、中部少数地区绿水流和蓝水流有下降的倾向，绿水储量在整个流域内都呈现出了显著的上升趋势（P＜0.05）.在整个流域尺度上，蓝水与绿水资源在过去50年间都呈现出上升趋势，蓝水流、绿水流、绿水储量的变化倾向率分别为11.3mm/10a、4.87mm/10a、16.4mm/10a，其中绿水流、绿水储量自20个世纪90年代后的上升趋势非常显著（P＜0.05），而蓝水流则在最近20年间呈现出略微的下降趋势，在未来规划管理中应考虑人类活动取用水对水资源量的影响.

英文摘要:

For water resources management，it is essential to evaluate the spatio-temporal variations of blue and green water resources under climate change，which is beneficial to the local eco-system and social-economic development.Based on the SWAT （Soil and Water Assessment Tool） model，this paper studied the hydrological processes in the Ganjiang River Basin during the 1960 to 2013 period.The spatio-temporal variations of blue and green water were further analyzed by using trend analysis and Mann-Kendall methods.Spatial analysis showed that the blue and green water displayed increasing trends in most of the study area，and the decreasing trend can only be detected in the west and central regions.For the whole study area，the blue and green water resources displayed increasing trends during the past 50 years.The blue water flow，green water flow and green water storage were increased at a rate of 11.3mm/10a，4.87mm/10a，16.4mm/10a，respectively.More specifically，the green water resources（flow and storage）showed significant increasing trends since the 1990s（P＜0.05），while the blue water flow was decreased slightly.Results suggested that human consumption exerted huge impacts on water resources，and should be considered in future planning and management.

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