| 刘 林,冻芳芳,李国文,刘旗福,李明亮.赣南主汛期降水趋势与预测[J].江西水利科技,2019,(1): |
| 赣南主汛期降水趋势与预测 |
| Precipitation trend and forecast in the major flood season of south Jiangxi |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 降水 回归 Mann-Kendall检验 赣南 |
| 英文关键词: Precipitation Regression Mann-Kendall test South Jiangxi |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 以赣南主汛期（4-6月）降水为研究对象，采用1951-2017年气候因子指数与降水数据，运用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall检验法分析了赣南主汛期降水的趋势特征，认为赣南主汛期降水存在减小的趋势，倾向率约为-17mm/10a，赣南主汛期降水在20世纪80年代末至今下降趋势显著；在赣南主汛期降水与前期气候因子指数、前期降水相关普查的基础上，利用多元逐步回归方法建立了赣南主汛期降水长期趋势预测模型，经检验该模型具有一定的可靠性，提升了防洪减灾工作的主动性. |
| 英文摘要: |
| According to 1951～2017 year climate factor indexes and precipitation data，this paper takes precipitation of the major flood season （April to June）as research subject，use linear trend method and Mann-Kendall test method to analyze precipitation trend in the major flood season of south Jiangxi，we conclude that precipitation in the major flood season of south Jiangxi is decreasing with a tendency rate of 17mm/10a in the long run，an evident downtrend has been happening since the end of 1980s.A census on the relationship between precipitation in the major flood season of south Jiangxi and pre climate factor indexes or pre precipitation has been conducted，then we established a long term trend prediction model for precipitation in the major flood season of south Jiangxi.We have verified that the model is reliable.This model can help us make a good preparation for flood control and disaster alleviation． |
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