1954-2012年乐安河流域水文气象要素
变化规律分析

根据乐安河流域1954-2012年水文、气象资料，采用滑动平均法和Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法对其降水、气温、暴雨、干旱和径流进行趋势分析。结果表明：流域平均气温呈显著上升趋势（P<0.01），近10年来干旱情况日益加剧，尤其是2003、2004年和2007年干旱时间分别达到56、81、57 d；蒸发量总体呈振荡缓慢下降趋势；降水量呈增加趋势，且近些年来暴雨强度和暴雨频率都有所增加。通过Mann-Kendall突变点检验，发现径流在1985和2003年存在两个显著的突变点。以上结果说明，该流域季节性干旱和旱涝灾害有进一步加剧的风险，需要采取措施应对全球气候变化对区域水资源的影响。

英文摘要:

This paper used the Lean watershed, the major tributary of Poyang lake basin as an example to analyze the dynamics of precipitation, temperature, storm events, drought and streamflow (1954-2012). The Sliding Average Method and Mann- Kendall test were used for this study. Results showed that the annual mean temperature increased significantly (P＜0.01)，in the past decades, the drought days was increasing, especially in the 2003(56d), 2004(57d) and 2007(81d) year; evaporation showed a reducing trend；besides,the average intensity and frequency of storm rainfall were increased. Through the Mann-Kendall mutation point test, two breakpoints in the runoff (year 1985 and year 2003) were detected in the Le'an River Watershed. All above results clearly demonstrate that there are increased trend in storm intensity and the duration of drought, which may have the risk of flood and drought in the future. Therefore, integrated watershed management strategies should be made to minimize the effects of climate change on water resources.

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