基于MCI的鄱阳湖流域干旱多变量概率特征分析
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S423

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Multivariate probabilistic analysis of drought characteristics in Poyang Lake Basin based on MCI
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    摘要:

    鄱阳湖流域干旱时空变化显著,近几十年部分地区易发生严重干旱,研究其干旱特征对该地区的农业生产、水源灌溉以及生态保护等方面都具有重要意义。基于鄱阳湖流域25个气象站1961—2023年逐日观测数据计算气象干旱综合指数(MCI),根据游程理论识别干旱过程,分别使用单变量函数和多变量Copula函数对干旱历时和干旱烈度进行分析。结果表明:鄱阳湖流域轻旱和中旱事件占比较高,分别在32.20%~64.62%和35.38%~67.80%,重旱事件占比较低,不大于2.30%;干旱历时和干旱烈度均符合伽马分布,存在较强上尾相关性,采用Gumbel Copula函数来构造二者的联合分布最为合适,短历时低烈度的干旱过程发生概率高,长历时高烈度极端干旱过程发生概率较小。鄱阳湖流域发生长历时和高烈度干旱风险最高的地区,整体呈现“四周山地+入江盆地”的空间格局。

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    The spatial and temporal variation of drought in Poyang Lake Basin is significant,and some areas are prone to severe drought in recent decades.It is of great significance to study the drought characteristics in this region for agricultural production,water resource irrigation and ecological protection.The meteorological drought composite index(MCI)was calculated based on the daily observation data of 25 meteorological stations in the Poyang Lake basin from 1961 to 2023,and the drought process was identified according to the run length theory.Drought duration and drought intensity were analyzed using univariate and multivariate Copula functions,respectively.The results showed that the proportion of light drought and moderate drought events were high in the Poyang Lake basin,ranging from 32.20%to 64.62%and 35.38%to 67.80%,respectively.The proportion of severe drought events was low,ranging from 0.00%to 2.30%.Both drought duration and drought intensity accorded with gamma distribution,and there was a relative strong correlation with an upper tail between drought duration and drought intensity,their joint distribution can be best construted by the Gumbel Copula function.The occurrence probability of short duration and low intensity drought process was high,and the occurrence probability of long duration and high intensity extreme drought process was small.The area with the highest risk of long duration and high intensity drought in the Poyang Lake Basin showed an overall spatial pattern of"a river-fed basin in the center surrounded by mountains".

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胡闽,甘志君,毛安琪,杨承志.基于MCI的鄱阳湖流域干旱多变量概率特征分析[J].江西水利科技,2025,(5):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-25
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